Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market tracking whether any national government or military confirms a warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline on June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves "Yes" only if a listed country’s naval vessels are officially confirmed to have passed through the narrowest section of the waterway between Iran and Oman, or if credible reporting reaches an overwhelming consensus that the transit occurred. Operations elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea do not count.

This forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, especially for oil shipping and regional security involving Iran, the U.S., and other naval powers. Traders are watching for any escalation, escort missions, or naval deployments that specifically include passage through the strait. Current market probability is about 17%, suggesting relatively low but non-trivial odds that at least one qualifying warship transit will be confirmed before the end date. The event is useful for gauging market sentiment on Middle East maritime risk and geopolitical escalation.