What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market centered on whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an explicit public announcement or a formally established US-Iran deal that accepts continued uranium enrichment, even if the agreement includes limits, monitoring, or other conditions. Mere negotiations or expressions of openness do not count. This makes the forecast a focused test of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, with implications for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and broader regional security. Traders are currently assigning about a 33.5% probability to the expected outcome, indicating market sentiment leans against a definitive agreement but leaves meaningful room for an event prediction to resolve Yes before the end date. Because resolution depends on official statements or credible reporting of a formal deal, the market will likely move on any substantive US-Iran announcement before June 30.