US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

US x China tariff agreement by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and China will reach an official, publicly announced mutual agreement on tariffs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a clear outcome: a finalized bilateral trade and tariff agreement, not informal statements, unilateral moves, or announcements that do not amount to a mutual deal. The market also allows resolution if a broadly confirmed public report establishes that both sides have reached agreement, including a tariff reduction tied to a mutual accord.

This event matters because US-China trade policy affects global supply chains, investor sentiment, and broader political relations between Washington and Beijing. Traders are watching for any signal tied to the Trump-Xi summit, Xi Jinping, or official statements from the United States and the People’s Republic of China. As of the latest update, the market assigns about 3.15% probability to a yes outcome, suggesting very low odds that an agreement will be announced before the deadline. The event prediction closes on May 31, making timing central to the final resolution.