US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026? is an economy prediction market tracking whether the United States will enter a recession before the end of 2026. The event resolves to “Yes” if either the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or if the NBER publicly announces that a recession occurred in the U.S. by the time the BEA releases its advance estimate for Q4 2026. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the odds that weak growth or an official NBER recession call will confirm a downturn. This matters because U.S. recession signals influence market sentiment across business, macro, and economic policy categories. The prediction market opened on 2025-09-29 and is scheduled to remain active until 2027-01-31, giving participants time to react to BEA GDP data and any NBER updates. Current market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders currently see recession as possible but not the base-case expected outcome.