Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? is a prediction market on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints will recover to standard levels before the end of July 2026. The forecasted outcome is based on IMF Portwatch data: the market resolves “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 60 on any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. If that threshold is not published in time, the market resolves “No.”

This economy and geopolitics event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for tankers, container ships, dry bulk cargo, and other vessels, making traffic levels a useful signal for regional stability and trade flow. Tags such as Iran, Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire highlight the broader political context traders are watching. Current market probability is about 56%, suggesting sentiment is slightly tilted toward normal traffic returning by the deadline, though the outcome remains uncertain and fully dependent on IMF Portwatch publications through July 31, 2026.