Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" is a prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, as measured by IMF Portwatch. The event centers on daily ship arrivals in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints, where traffic includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. It matters because changes in Hormuz transit can signal shifts in geopolitical risk, Iran-related tensions, and broader shipping conditions affecting global trade. The market will resolve to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes the required 7-day average at or above 60 on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. The relevant forecast period runs from May 11, 2026 through the end of 2026. Current market probability is about 82.5%, suggesting traders expect a return to normal traffic levels, though that outcome is not guaranteed. As an economy prediction market in the ships subcategory, it reflects market sentiment around transit trends, odds, and event prediction based on official IMF Portwatch data.