Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? is a prediction market in the Economy category tracking whether ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz will reach a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals on or before June 15, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that are reported in the source dataset. In practical terms, traders are betting on whether maritime traffic in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a level treated as “normal” by the market’s threshold. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is closely tied to global oil flows, Iran-related geopolitics, and broader economic and shipping conditions. The market opened on May 26, 2026 and will resolve according to the first qualifying IMF Portwatch publication within the event window, or by the final date if no qualifying value appears. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible before the deadline.