US military draft authorized in 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United States will enact legislation authorizing conscription or otherwise activate the Selective Service System to induct personnel into the Armed Forces by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if both houses of Congress pass such legislation and the president signs it, or if another official legal mechanism establishes a military draft. Measures that merely change registration rules or administrative procedures do not count. This makes the event a focused forecast of a major national security and politics outcome, rather than a broader debate over military administration. The current market probability is about 8%, suggesting traders see a low but non-zero chance of a draft being authorized before the deadline. Market sentiment will likely be shaped by developments in U.S. politics, defense policy, and any escalation in geopolitical tensions, including U.S. and Iran-related headlines referenced in the tags. The start date is March 13, 2026, and the event runs through the end of the year, giving traders a clear timeframe for event prediction and odds updates.