Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?

Thailand strikes Cambodia by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Thailand will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil, or against a Cambodian embassy or consulate, by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if Thai military forces launch aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that impact Cambodian territory or official Cambodian diplomatic property, based on credible reporting or an official acknowledgment from the Thailand government. It excludes artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks, naval shelling, and intercepted missiles or drones that do not meet the stated criteria. This event matters because any escalation between Thailand and Cambodia would signal a serious deterioration in regional security and could affect broader market sentiment on Southeast Asia military risk. The forecast is currently priced at 0%, indicating traders see no immediate expectation of a qualifying strike at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new reports emerge. The market is active through the specified resolution window ending June 30, 2026, with final resolution potentially delayed if evidence remains ambiguous.