Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether ship transit through this key Middle East chokepoint will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 “Arrivals of Ships” by May 31, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. In practice, traders are watching whether the expected outcome for regional shipping activity and oil-related logistics improves before the end-of-month deadline.

The market matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime routes, with direct implications for energy markets, trade flows, and broader U.S. x Iran geopolitical risk. Current market probability is about 35%, suggesting traders see a limited but meaningful chance of a return to normal traffic levels before resolution. The event prediction will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data, or at the close of the measurement window if no such reading appears.