Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Hegseth will cease to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between market creation and the June 30 deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops holding the office, even briefly. It can also resolve early if there is an official announcement of resignation or removal before the end date, regardless of the effective date. For traders following the Trump Cabinet, U.S. politics, and U.S. x Iran-related developments, this market reflects how political risk and cabinet stability are being priced in real time. Current market probability is around 3.55%, suggesting the market sentiment leans strongly toward Hegseth remaining in office through the resolution date. As with other prediction market forecasts, the expected outcome depends on official government information, with credible reporting potentially used for resolution if needed. The event is active through June 30, making timing central to the event prediction and the final odds.