Nothing Ever Happens: May

Nothing Ever Happens: May is a geopolitics prediction market about whether any major global shock will occur before the market closes on May 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Something” if one of several high-impact events happens between market creation and the deadline, including a US-Iran permanent peace deal, an Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil reaching $150, US military action against Cuba, a US confirmation that aliens exist, or Russia invading a NATO country. If none of those conditions are met, it resolves to “Nothing.”

The event matters because it packages several low-probability, high-consequence geopolitical scenarios into a single event prediction, giving traders a simple way to express market sentiment on global instability. Current market probability is around 95.3% for “Nothing,” suggesting traders expect no qualifying event before the cutoff. As with any prediction market, that probability reflects current odds and can change as new developments emerge. The start date is April 30, 2026, and the market ends at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.