Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31? is a prediction market forecasting whether the CDC will report at least the specified number of confirmed measles (rubeola) cases in the United States by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes or No based on the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter’s 2026 Total Cases figure, making the CDC the key reference point for the event prediction. If that source becomes unavailable, another credible source may be used, but only CDC-reported cases qualify for resolution. This matters because measles case counts reflect public health conditions, outbreak activity, and broader disease surveillance in the U.S. Market sentiment currently implies about a 65% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting traders see the threshold as more likely than not to be met before the deadline. The event sits in the Science category and is tagged around measles, pandemics, and weather-related prediction market indexing. As the end date approaches, the forecast will depend on updated CDC reporting and any changes in case totals leading into the May 31 resolution time.