Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? is a weather and science prediction market asking whether a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or higher will occur before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on one of the most extreme types of volcanic activity, where the forecasted outcome is simply whether at least one qualifying eruption happens during the market’s timeframe. Resolution is tied primarily to the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, with the final check expected by March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. If that source is incomplete or unavailable, the market may rely on consensus scientific sources such as the USGS or volcanic observatories. Current market probability is about 11%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a VEI 6-plus eruption in 2026. As a natural disaster and climate-related event prediction, it attracts attention from traders tracking volcanic risk, scientific reporting, and broader market sentiment around rare geophysical events.