Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has actually established control over the island by the deadline; disputed, temporary, or partial disruptions do not count. That makes the forecast highly specific and dependent on confirmed changes in control, not just military activity, announcements, or threats.

The market matters because Kharg Island is closely tied to Iran’s strategic position in the Gulf and the broader Strait of Hormuz region. Traders are watching official government and military statements, along with credible reporting, to assess the expected outcome. At the current stage, market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation that Iran will lose control before the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects event prediction and shifting market sentiment around a major geopolitical scenario involving Iran, Khamenei, and the Kharg Island area.