Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran and Oman will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz before June 15 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if an official agreement is confirmed by the governments involved or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting; talks, proposals, and non-finalized frameworks do not count. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global shipping and any formal Iran-Oman arrangement could affect regional maritime policy and broader Middle East market sentiment. The forecast is currently pricing in a 19.55% probability, suggesting traders see an agreement as possible but not the base expected outcome. With the market running from May 22 to the June 15 deadline, the event prediction centers on whether diplomacy will produce a finalized deal within the resolution window.