Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.

This market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.