US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any official deal, including a multilateral arrangement that names both the U.S. and Iran as parties, could affect Middle East security, diplomacy, and broader international relations. The market resolves to Yes if an agreement is officially announced before the deadline, even if implementation comes later. If no qualifying agreement is reached by the cutoff, it resolves to No. Current market probability is around 39.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of a deal before the deadline. As with most event prediction markets, sentiment can shift quickly as negotiations, official statements, and credible reporting change the odds. This listing is closely watched by traders tracking geopolitical forecasts, Iran-related developments, and Middle East nuclear diplomacy.