Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will fall to levels consistent with an effective closure. The market resolves “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals for the strait at 10 or fewer on any date from market creation through the listed deadline, using the IMF PortWatch “Arrivals of Ships” data as the resolution source. The forecast focuses on a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the wider shipping routes affected by Houthi activity, regional spillover, and broader Middle East risk, including implications for oil transport and vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This makes the event important for traders watching geopolitics, shipping disruption, and Red Sea traffic conditions. The market runs through April 30, 2026, with resolution possible earlier if the qualifying data appears before then. Current market probability is not provided, so market sentiment and odds must be inferred from trading activity rather than an explicit forecast. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations about whether shipping flows through this strategic strait will deteriorate enough to meet the closure threshold.