2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? is a weather prediction market asking whether May 2026 will rank among the three warmest Mays ever measured in NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The forecast is resolved using the May value in NASA’s GISTEMP dataset, with ties counting toward the relevant bracket, so if May 2026 ties for first, second, or third, it qualifies. This makes the event a focused global temperature forecast within the WEATHER / Global Temp category, tracking how an individual month compares with the historical record. Current market probability is about 1.25%, suggesting traders see a low chance that May 2026 finishes in the top three hottest Mays on record. The market remains active from late April through the June 10, 2026 end date, while the resolution deadline is June 30, 2026 if NASA has not published the needed data. For traders and observers following climate-related event prediction markets, the listing reflects market sentiment on global warming, monthly temperature anomalies, and the expected outcome for one of the most closely watched climate indicators.