Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ebola case in the US by June 30? is a prediction market on whether a confirmed Ebola infection will be reported in the territory of the United States before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” if an active laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is identified in U.S. territory between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves to “No.” Official government information, such as CDC reporting, is the primary resolution source, although overwhelming credible reporting can also determine the outcome. This event matters because a confirmed U.S. Ebola case would be a significant public health development and a major news event for traders following disease surveillance and outbreak risk. Current market probability is about 35.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As a weather-category prediction market with “Hantavirus” and “Ebola” tags, it is also relevant to broader event prediction and risk-monitoring searches. The forecast focuses on confirmation, not suspected exposure, so the key question is whether an official or widely reported case appears before the end date.