Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will grant Sam Bankman-Fried a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to "Yes" only if an official federal act of clemency occurs within that deadline; otherwise it settles to "No." If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue relief in time, the market may resolve early to "No."

This event matters because it sits at the intersection of politics, crypto, and crypto legal risk, with traders watching both the legal status of Sam Bankman-Fried and any credible reporting or official US government information that could affect the outcome. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment around a rare and highly specific presidential action rather than a policy decision.

Current market probability is about 2.65%, suggesting low odds that traders expect a pardon or similar reprieve before the July 31 deadline. The forecast is narrow and time-sensitive, making the event a useful signal for event prediction watchers following Trump, SBF, and broader political probability markets.