Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? is a political prediction market tracking the risk of a U.S. military offensive against any qualifying Latin American state before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the United States begins an operation intended to establish control over part of another country’s land territory by the end of the year, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources. Countries covered include Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, and other Latin American nations listed in the market rules. This event matters because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, U.S. foreign policy, and regional security in Latin America. As of the latest market data, traders assign a 26% probability to the expected outcome, suggesting the market sentiment leans toward No but leaves meaningful odds of escalation. The market opens on January 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a year-long geopolitical forecast watched closely by political observers and prediction market participants.