Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?

"Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is a political prediction market asking whether the US House of Representatives will pass a reconciliation bill by the specified deadline, with resolution set for 11:59 PM ET on the end date. The market is tied to official US government information, with credible reporting also used as part of the resolution process. In practical terms, traders are forecasting whether Congress can move a budget-related reconciliation measure through the House before time expires. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 35%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward a No outcome, though the odds remain meaningful and can change with legislative developments. This event sits in the Politics category and is relevant to Congress, the US House, and broader federal budget and domestic policy debates. The forecast matters because reconciliation bills often carry major policy implications and can signal how much legislative support leaders can secure. The event started on May 21, 2026, and remains open through September 30, 2026, making it a time-sensitive event prediction watched closely by political observers and prediction market participants.