Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? is an economy prediction market tracking whether IMF Portwatch will publish a daily “Arrivals of Ships” count for the Strait of Hormuz at or above the listed threshold at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that ship traffic through this strategically important chokepoint will reach the specified level on at least one day during the resolution window. The Strait of Hormuz matters because it is a critical route for global shipping and oil flows, so changes in transit activity can reflect broader geopolitical and maritime risk. The market resolves using IMF Portwatch’s transit calls data, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels reported in its chart and downloadable files. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders expect a relatively low chance of the threshold being met before the end date. This event prediction is especially relevant to geopolitics, Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, oil, and shipping-related market sentiment.