ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

ECB Interest Rates: July 2026 is a prediction market on the European Central Bank’s July 22–23, 2026 meeting and the resulting change in the deposit facility rate. The market resolves based on the official ECB statement or release, using the rate change versus the level before the meeting. Traders are forecasting whether the ECB will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with the outcome rounded to the market’s stated 25-basis-point brackets when needed. This event matters because ECB policy is a key driver of inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader European financial conditions. It also serves as a real-time economic forecast for Europe and global rates markets. Current market probability is about 10% for the listed outcome, indicating relatively low odds at the moment, though that can shift as the meeting approaches and new data influences market sentiment. The market opened on April 30, 2026 and remains active until the ECB’s July 2026 decision is announced or the end date is reached. As a prediction market in the Economy category, it is closely watched by traders tracking ECB interest rates, Europe, and global rates expectations.