Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...? is a political prediction market on whether Hezbollah will officially announce that it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a formal policy announcement from Hezbollah leadership — currently Secretary-General Naim Qassem, a direct successor, or the organization’s widely acknowledged leadership if that office becomes vacant. For this market, “disarm” means a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle Hezbollah’s military capability in Lebanon, including partial disarmament if it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. The event matters because Hezbollah’s military posture is a major issue in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and broader Middle East geopolitics, with implications for foreign policy and regional security. Market sentiment currently assigns a 0% probability, indicating traders see an official disarmament announcement by the deadline as extremely unlikely at present. The prediction market will resolve to Yes only if there is an official qualifying announcement or credible consensus reporting confirming such a policy has been adopted; informal remarks or conditional plans do not count. The event remains active through the 2026 deadline.