Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan by the September 30, 2026 deadline, with the market resolving at 11:59 PM ET. The event is framed around official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, though credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome. As a World politics forecast, it focuses on a major Taiwan Strait escalation and the broader strategic risks that such an invasion would pose for regional and global security. Current market probability is about 2.8%, indicating that traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The prediction market remains active through the end date, and market sentiment will likely continue to reflect developments in China-Taiwan relations, military activity, and international diplomatic signals. This event prediction is closely watched because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, security analysis, and crisis forecasting.