Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if such an offensive begins, including actions affecting inhabited islands under Taiwan’s administration, and No if it does not occur by the cutoff. Because this is a world politics event with major implications for regional security, trade, and U.S.-China tensions, it draws attention from traders tracking geopolitical risk and event prediction signals.

Market sentiment currently implies a 0.95 probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting very strong expectations in the prediction market, though that probability is not a guarantee. Resolution may rely on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also considered. As the end date approaches, odds and trading volume may continue to reflect changing geopolitical developments.