Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan before the deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or if credible reporting reaches consensus. In practical terms, traders are forecasting the risk of a cross-strait conflict involving the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands under its administration. This event matters because any military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for regional security, global trade, and international relations. The market is active from March 17, 2026 through December 31, 2027, with current market probability at 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low but meaningful chance of an invasion within the forecast window. As a geopolitical forecast, it draws attention from participants tracking China, Taiwan, world politics, and broader market sentiment around security risks in East Asia.