Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? is a prediction market on whether Colombia’s next president will be elected without a runoff. The market tracks the first round of the Colombian presidential election scheduled for May 31, 2026, and resolves to Yes only if a candidate wins more than 50% of the valid votes. If no one clears that threshold, a second round is expected on June 21, 2026, and the market will resolve No. The forecast matters because Colombia’s electoral system often requires a runoff, so an outright first-round victory would signal unusually strong support for one candidate and a clear market shift in political sentiment. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see a first-round win as relatively unlikely. The event prediction will be resolved using credible reporting, with official confirmation from Colombia’s National Civil Registry if needed. If the result is not known by December 31, 2026, the market also resolves No.