Will any country leave NATO by...?

Will any country leave NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether any NATO member state will formally withdraw from the alliance or submit an official notice of denunciation by the market’s deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” only if a member country takes one of those formal steps under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty; a mere exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure is not enough. This makes the forecast a focused test of alliance stability, international security, and current market sentiment around NATO and world politics. The market is active from February 13, 2025 through the resolution deadline on December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest data, the implied probability is 0%, suggesting traders currently see no meaningful expectation of a withdrawal, though prediction market odds can change quickly with new geopolitical developments or official government statements. Resolution will rely primarily on official information from NATO and the relevant government, with credible reporting also considered if needed.