Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? is a political prediction market on the 2026 Landtag election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, with voting scheduled for September 6, 2026. The forecast asks whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) will secure more than half of the seats in the state parliament, which would give it an absolute majority on its own. If the election is not held, or if definitive results are still unavailable by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined strictly by seat count, based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt. Current market probability places the Yes outcome at about 41.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of an outright AfD majority. As a German elections event prediction, this market is relevant for observers tracking market sentiment around regional politics, parliamentary control, and the broader direction of the AfD in eastern Germany.