Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? is a political prediction market focused on whether any country not already in the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the accords by the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if there is an official, publicly acknowledged signing by both governments that is clearly tied to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already in the agreement as of June 26, 2025, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, do not count. Somaliland is explicitly treated as a country for resolution purposes. In the Israel and Middle East category, the event reflects broader diplomatic developments tied to Gaza, regional security, and normalization efforts. Current market probability is about 16.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but plausible chance of a new signatory before the end date. Resolution will rely primarily on official government statements, though credible reporting may be used if needed. This event prediction captures market sentiment around Middle East diplomacy and the expected outcome of ongoing normalization talks.