US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? is a political prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, even if it includes other parties such as in a multilateral agreement, and it will count as No otherwise. This makes the event relevant to foreign policy, geopolitics, the Middle East, and broader Israel-Iran security dynamics. The market is live from November 5, 2025 through the end-of-2026 resolution date, giving traders a clear timeframe to price in shifting diplomatic signals, negotiations, and regional developments. Current market probability sits at about 77.5%, indicating that traders broadly expect some form of agreement before 2027, though the outcome remains uncertain. Resolution depends primarily on an official announcement from the U.S. or Iran, with overwhelming credible reporting also qualifying. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment on the likelihood of a nuclear deal rather than a policy endorsement or guarantee.