Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027? is a political prediction market tracking whether Donald Trump will grant a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve to any listed individual between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if the named person receives official clemency from Trump during that window; otherwise it resolves “No,” with government records as the primary source and credible reporting used as a secondary check. This event matters because Trump-era pardon decisions can signal legal, political, and strategic priorities, making it a closely watched forecast in U.S. politics. Tags and search interest around Trump, politics, and Sam Bankman-Fried suggest attention to high-profile potential clemency targets. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 7.5%, indicating traders currently assign a relatively low but non-zero chance of a pardon before the deadline. The event’s odds and market sentiment may shift as new reporting, legal developments, or public statements emerge over the forecast period.