US strike on Colombia by...?

US strike on Colombia by...? is a political prediction market asking whether a United States-initiated drone, missile, or air strike will be announced or credibly reported on Colombian soil by January 31. The forecast covers a narrow definition of qualifying action: the strike must physically impact land territory in Colombia, including rivers, lakes, or ports, and must be carried out by U.S. military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives. Intercepted missiles or drones, as well as artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks, do not count toward a Yes resolution.

This event matters because it tests market sentiment around U.S.-Colombia tensions, broader geopolitics, and the likelihood of direct U.S. military action in the region. The prediction market currently implies about an 18.5% probability of a qualifying strike, suggesting traders see the outcome as possible but not the base case. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, and the market will remain open until two days after the resolution time unless the date can no longer be confirmed.