US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

US forces enter Venezuela again by...? is a political prediction market on whether active U.S. military personnel will physically enter Venezuelan territory before the market’s deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The event is narrowly defined: only U.S. military personnel entering Venezuela’s land territory count, while entry by air or sea does not. Intelligence operatives are excluded, and military contractors, advisors, or officials traveling for diplomatic reasons do not qualify. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.

This forecast matters because any verified U.S. military presence in Venezuela would be a significant geopolitical development with potential implications for U.S.-Venezuela relations, regional security, and broader political sentiment. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 19.4% probability to a “Yes” outcome, suggesting the expected outcome remains a “No” unless new reporting changes market sentiment. The event sits in the Politics category, with strong relevance to Venezuela, Trump, geopolitics, and the Trump presidency, making it a closely watched event prediction for traders tracking foreign policy risk.