US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

“US and Iran sign an agreement by...?” is a political prediction market focused on whether the United States will sign any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if an authorized representative of the U.S. and an authorized representative of Iran sign the same agreement, or sign separate documents that clearly accept the same underlying deal. Both physical and officially issued electronic signatures qualify. This event matters because any formal U.S.-Iran agreement would be a significant development in geopolitics, diplomacy, and broader Iran policy, with potential implications for regional stability and peace deal expectations. Current market probability is 100%, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely strong expectation that the forecasted outcome will occur, though prediction market odds can change as new information emerges. Resolution will rely primarily on official government information, with credible reporting as a secondary source if needed. As a political forecast, the market reflects active trader sentiment around treaty prospects, U.S. x Iran relations, and the likelihood of an official agreement before the end date.