Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline. The forecast asks traders to assess the likelihood of a broad suspension, cancellation, or shutdown of commercial aviation affecting all of Israeli airspace or a majority portion of it. According to the market rules, limited delays, isolated regional restrictions, airline-ordered suspensions, or weather-related disruptions do not count. The event matters because an airspace closure would be a significant geopolitical and aviation development, especially given the Israel x Iran context reflected in the market tags and category. Market sentiment can shift quickly based on official aviation authority notices, credible reporting, or changes in regional security conditions. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating the current expected outcome is that no qualifying closure will occur before the end date. The market runs from May 4, 2026 through May 31, 2026, making the timing central to any event prediction.