Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? is a political prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through the key Gulf chokepoint rebounds to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the July 15, 2026 deadline. The forecast relies on IMF Portwatch’s “Arrivals of Ships” data for the Strait of Hormuz, which counts container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. For this market to resolve Yes, IMF Portwatch must publish a qualifying moving average at or above the threshold within the specified period; otherwise it resolves No. The market matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy and trade flows, so changes in traffic can reflect geopolitical risk, especially around Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, and ceasefire-related developments. As of the latest update, traders assign roughly 38.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment currently leans toward traffic not fully normalizing by the deadline. The event is active from June 13, 2026 through July 15, 2026, and resolution is based strictly on IMF Portwatch data.