Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? is a political prediction market tracking whether Nicolás Maduro will be released from custody by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast a specific legal and geopolitical outcome: whether Maduro leaves state custody, including release on house arrest, parole, bond, or another condition that no longer keeps him in correctional custody. A transfer to another prison, court, or hospital within the custody system does not count as a release, and temporary outings for testimony also would not qualify. This makes the market dependent on official government or corrections sources, though credible reporting may also be used in resolution. Current market probability is about 12.5%, indicating low but non-zero expectations that the outcome will occur. The market sits at the intersection of politics, Venezuela, geopolitics, and broader event prediction activity, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and any new developments involving Maduro’s detention status.