Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) is a political prediction market tracking which listed leader, if any, will permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The market is resolved by the first individual who ceases to occupy their official post on a permanent basis; resignations, announced departures, election defeats, temporary suspensions, caretaker arrangements, and other provisional transfers of power do not count. If none of the listed leaders is permanently removed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the event will resolve to “None before 2027.”

This forecast matters because it reflects broader market sentiment on political stability and leadership continuity across geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that an incumbent will be out of power before 2027, with the current market probability around 55%. The event begins on April 27, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, making timing central to the expected outcome. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, and no additional individuals will be added after creation. The market includes political signals relevant to leaders such as Starmer and other officeholders tracked under the politics category.