Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? is a prediction market on whether confirmed measles (rubeola) cases in the United States will reach the specified threshold during 2026, based on the CDC Measles (Rubeola) case counter. The market resolves to Yes if the CDC reports at least the target number of human cases between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves to No. This makes the event a live forecast of infectious disease activity, with resolution tied to an official public-health source rather than state-level reports or media estimates. The market is relevant to traders tracking pandemics, science, and climate & science categories, since it reflects broader public health risk and the expected outcome of measles spread in the U.S. As of the latest update, market probability is 18.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance to the threshold being reached, though that sentiment can change as new case data emerges. The event remains active through the end of 2026, making CDC updates the key driver of odds and market sentiment.