Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea will be arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event covers a range of qualifying outcomes, including physical custody, formal booking, voluntary surrender on an arrest warrant, house arrest, or electronic monitoring. It does not resolve to Yes if an arrest warrant is merely issued or if he is only questioned, interviewed, or indicted without detention. This forecast matters because Lee Jae-myung is a major figure in South Korea politics, and any arrest or detention could have significant implications for the country’s political landscape and party leadership. As of the latest market data, traders are pricing the probability of a Yes outcome at about 10.75%, suggesting market sentiment leans toward No while still assigning some chance of an arrest before the deadline. The primary resolution source will be official law enforcement information, with credible reporting potentially used if needed.