Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Kash Patel will cease to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period by the market’s specified deadline. The event resolves to “Yes” if Patel resigns or is removed before the end date, and it can also resolve immediately on an official announcement from the Trump administration, even if the change takes effect later. If neither occurs, the market resolves to “No.”

This forecast matters because it tracks the stability of a high-profile Trump administration appointment and reflects market sentiment around personnel changes in the FBI and broader Trump Cabinet politics. Traders are watching official statements and credible reporting for signals that could shift the expected outcome. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current priced expectation of Patel leaving by the listed timing, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges.

The event began on February 23, 2026 and remains active, making it a live political forecast for anyone following Trump-era governance and appointment risk.