Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? is a finance prediction market asking whether Jerome Powell will cease to hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is specific: it resolves to “Yes” only if Powell leaves the Board at any point during the event window. If he remains a Board member, even if he stops serving as Chair of the Federal Reserve, the market resolves to “No.”

This event matters because Powell’s status is closely tied to U.S. economic policy, Fed rates, and broader market expectations around monetary leadership. Current market probability is around 35%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As with other prediction market events, sentiment may shift with government announcements, credible reporting, or changes in the political environment involving the Fed and figures such as Trump. The resolution will rely on U.S. government information, with credible consensus reporting also accepted.