Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...? is a prediction market on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate before the January 2026 FOMC meeting concludes. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Fed announces a rate cut at any point between December 16, 2025 and the end of the January 27-28, 2026 meeting; if no qualifying cut occurs by the specified February 7, 2026 cutoff, it resolves to “No.” Emergency rate cuts also count. This event matters because Fed policy is a key driver of inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions, making it closely watched by traders, economists, and market participants following Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. As of the latest data, the market probability is about 1.6%, suggesting traders currently assign a low chance of an imminent rate cut. That sentiment reflects the event prediction embedded in Fed rates, economic policy, and the wider finance category. Resolution will rely primarily on official Federal Reserve communications, with credible reporting used as backup when needed.