Iran Nuke before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027? is a political prediction market tracking whether Iran will be officially confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran’s government, or major global news sources verify that outcome; otherwise it resolves to No. As a geopolitically sensitive event in the Politics category, the forecast reflects broader market sentiment around Iran, the Middle East, and nuclear risk. Traders are currently assigning a probability of about 6.85%, suggesting the expected outcome is still No, though the odds can change as new information emerges. The event begins on November 13, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, giving the market a long horizon for developments in nuclear inspections, diplomacy, and regional security. This prediction market is closely watched because any credible confirmation of a nuclear weapon would have major implications for international relations, sanctions policy, and Middle East stability.