Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran before the listed deadline. The event focuses on a potential leadership change within Iran’s ruling structure and resolves to “Yes” if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader during the market’s timeframe. An official announcement of resignation or removal also counts, even if the departure takes effect later. The market runs from March 9, 2026 through December 31, 2026 (ET), giving traders a long window to assess geopolitical developments, regime stability, and credible reporting on Iran’s leadership dynamics. As a political forecast, it sits within the broader category of Iran regime and geopolitics events, where market sentiment can shift quickly on news about the Khamenei family, succession, or internal power changes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a leadership change at the moment, though odds can move as new information emerges.